Is China a house of cards?
To many in the West, China appears an unstoppable economic juggernaut. But China’s economy will soon confront some serious problems. And hedge funds smell blood in the water.
Even today, China looks much rosier from the outside looking in than from the inside looking out, as this English translation of a Chinese news article explains:
Nearly 60% of [Chinese] people interviewed claim they are either considering emigration through investment overseas, or have already completed the process, according to the 2011 Private Wealth Report on China published by China Merchants Bank and a business consulting firm Bain & Company. The richer you are, the study suggests, the likelier it is that you resort to emigration. And among those who possess more than 100 million yuan, 27 % have already emigrated while 47% are considering leaving.
The fact that more and more rich Chinese are seeking to emigrate is turning into a hot topic in China, and statistics prove that the trend is a real one. According to Caixin online, a Chinese website specialized in finance, the compound annual growth rate of overseas investment by Chinese individuals approached 100% between 2008 and 2010. The compound growth rate of the Chinese who used investments to emigrate to the United States in the past five years is 73%.
…[T]here are a lot of things in China that even the richest cannot buy… like [good] laws and regulations, the education system, social welfare, inheritance tax, quality of air, investing atmosphere, food safety, ability to travel, and so on. In short, these are the material factors that any State must provide to its people in order to ensure their happiness. In emerging countries such as China, these factors are still often found wanting.
Emotional reasons behind rich people’s immigration are generally linked to the lack of a sense of personal safety, including safety of personal wealth, as well as fear about an uncertain future.
…A recent Gallop Wellbeing Survey showed that most Chinese people feel depressed, even as China has sky—high economic growth rates that Europe and America can only dream of. According to the survey, which asked respondents to choose between “thriving,” “struggling,” and “suffering” to describe their situation, only 12% think themselves as “thriving,” while 17% describe themselves as “suffering,” and 71% “struggling.” The number of Chinese who feel that their life is improving is comparable to the number of Afghans and Yemeni who feel the same way, while the number of persons feeling they are “struggling” is approximately the same as in Haiti, Azerbaijan and Nepal.
…[A]s the gap between the rich and the poor is getting wider, and the poor are complaining more and more, the rich are also getting more nervous.
Posted by James on Sunday, June 12, 2011